The Centre for Sustainable Design (CfSD) has prepared a series of links to exisiting reports and cases on 3S. In addition, a series of sites have been identified that (a) provide information on future scenarios and (b) highlight scenario-building techniques.

Contents

• Scenarios
• Scenario Building Techniques

Scenarios

World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD)
The WBCSD Scenario Unit supports companies to understand a world transitioning from an industrial way of life to a sustainable one. The WBCSD Scenarios are based on three main premises: 1) Connected risks and environmental buffers, 2) Globalisation and commoditisation of products and services, and 3) Material and meaning constraint growth.
http://www.wbcsd-org.ae.psiweb.com/scenarios/

Three futures for Japan: Views from 2020 - The Economist (Vol. 346 No. 8060; p. 25)
by Tadashi Nakamae
Japan's possible futures are discussed based on three possible and plausible futures that could arise from Japan's current economic difficulties.
http://special.northernlight.com/global/japan_threefutures_economist.htm

Creating the Future: Scenarios for the Digital Economy - Innovators of Digital Economy Alternatives (IDEA)
Three scenarios looking at the digital economy in the year 2020.
http://edie.cprost.sfu.ca/~idea/scenarios.html

Shell Scenarios
Includes the Shell scenarios, an introduction to scenario building and links to other scenario-related web sites.
http://www.shell.com/royal-en/content/0,5028,25432-50913,00.html

Which World? Scenarios for the 21st Century
by Allen Hammond
This site offers information about a number of critical trends globally and for each of 7 major continental-scale regions of the world. It also contains short scenarios--structured stories--that offer conflicting perspectives on how events in each of these regions may unfold to the year 2050.
http://mars3.gps.caltech.edu/whichworld/

Emissions Scenarios: 2000 - Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC)
by Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart (Eds.)
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed long-term emission scenarios in 1990 and 1992 and have now updated them in 2000.
The full report: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm
The Summary for Policymakers: http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/sres-e.pdf

 

Scenario Building Techniques

Global Business Network (GBN)
GBN is a leader in the evolution and application of scenario thinking and strategic conversation.
http://www.gbn.org/public/gbnstory/scenarios/

Foresighting Around the World: A Review of Seven Best-In-Kind Programs - Battelle Seattle Research Center
By Marina Skumanich & Michelle Silbernagel
http://www.seattle.battelle.org/services/e&s/foresite/index.htm

Scenarios, Strategies and the Strategy Process - Centre for Organisational Learning and Change, Nijenrode University
By Kees van der Heijden
Paper about building and using scenarios to develop business strategy
http://www.library.nijenrode.nl/library/publications/nijrep/1997-01/1997-01.html

Storying Corporate Futures: The Shell Scenarios - International Journal of Futures Studies
by Robbie E. Davis-Floyd, Ph.D.
http://www.plausiblefutures.com/text/shell.html

Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow - CIO Magazine (15 Dec 1999)
By Meridith Levinson
Article about scenario planning
http://www.cio.com/archive/010100_stop_content.html

Forecast Techniques - Technology Futures, Inc.
Some of the techniques and methodologies that Technology Futures, Inc. use to develop technology/market forecasts. The techniques are categorized by the five different ways people view the future: 1) Extrapolators, 2) Pattern Analysts, 3) Goal Analysts, 4) Counter Punchers, and 5) Intuitors.
http://www.tfi.com/rescon/TF_Techniques.html

Topic area: Scenario Planning/ Thinking
Bibliography and reviews of books on scenario planning and thinking.
http://s1.webtrax.com.au/BB/Topic/Scenario.bbd

How to Build Scenarios
by Lawrence Wilkinson
Article on building scenarios, including 4 scenarios, by the co-founder and managing director of Global Business Network.
http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html

 

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Last Updated: 9 November, 2001